Most people choosing a trade look at one number: the salary. Pay matters, but it only tells you what a job is worth today. Growth tells you what it will be worth tomorrow, and for a career you are about to spend years training for, that second number deserves just as much attention.
A trade with strong projected growth tends to offer more job openings, easier hiring, better job security, and more room to move up. A shrinking trade can pay well today and still leave you fighting for work in ten years. This guide ranks skilled trades by projected employment growth using the Bureau of Labor Statistics 2024-34 projections, the same data the government uses to forecast the labor market. And it does something most "fastest growing" lists do not: it is honest about the difference between a fast growth rate and a lot of actual jobs.
Who this guide is for
High school students
Pick a trade with strong demand for the next decade, not just today.
Career changers
Move into a field with growing openings and real job security.
Future-minded planners
Choose work that holds up against automation and outsourcing.
Anyone weighing options
See where pay and growth actually overlap before you commit.
The short answer
The fastest-growing trades by percentage are in renewable energy: wind turbine technicians and solar installers lead every list, growing far faster than any other trade. But here is the catch that almost no one mentions: they are small fields. The two combined will add fewer than 20,000 jobs over the entire decade.
Meanwhile, electricians are projected to have around 81,000 openings every single year. A "slower-growing" trade with a huge workforce can offer far more real opportunity than a fast-growing niche. So the honest answer to "what is the fastest-growing trade" is wind turbine technician, but the honest answer to "what growing trade should I actually pursue" is usually something else entirely. We will untangle both.
How we ranked these trades
This ranking is based on one thing: the BLS projected percent change in employment from 2024 to 2034. Not salary, not popularity, not our opinion. The federal projections are the most authoritative forecast available, and ranking by them keeps this list honest.
But percent growth alone is misleading, so we show a second number next to it: average annual job openings. This is the figure that captures real opportunity, because it includes not just new jobs from growth but also the openings created when workers retire or leave, which is where the large, established trades quietly dominate. A trade can grow slowly and still open tens of thousands of jobs a year simply because so many people work in it and so many are retiring.
Read both columns together. Growth rate tells you which direction a trade is heading. Annual openings tells you how many real chances there are to get in.
The fastest-growing skilled trades, ranked
| # | Trade | Growth | Annual openings | Median pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Turbine Technician | +49.9% | 2,300* | $62,580 |
| 2 | Solar Photovoltaic Installer | +42.1% | 4,100* | $51,860 |
| 3 | Industrial Machinery Mechanic | +16.1% | 45,700 | $63,510 |
| 4 | Electrician | +9.5% | 81,000 | $62,350 |
| 5 | HVAC Technician | +8.1% | 40,100 | $61,010 |
| 6 | Plumber / Pipefitter / Steamfitter | +4.5% | 44,000 | $62,970 |
| 7 | Welder | +2.2% | 45,600 | $51,000 |
Growth = BLS projected percent change in employment, 2024-34. Openings = average annual openings over the decade (new growth plus replacement of workers who leave). Pay = BLS OEWS median. National figures.
* Wind Turbine Technician: Very small field: about2,300 openings a year and roughly 6,800 total new jobs over the decade.
* Solar Photovoltaic Installer: Small field: about4,100 openings a year and roughly 12,000 total new jobs over the decade.
The pattern jumps out once you see both numbers side by side. The two renewable-energy trades at the top have explosive growth rates and very few actual openings. The established trades below them have modest growth rates and enormous numbers of openings. Industrial machinery mechanic work sits in a genuine sweet spot: a strong 16.1% growth rate and around 45,700 openings a year.
Now let us look at what is actually driving the growth in each, because the "why" matters as much as the number.
What is driving growth in each trade
Electrician — the strongest all-around bet
Growth: +9.5% (2024-34) • Annual openings: about 81,000 • Median pay: about $62,350
Electricians are the clearest example of why growth rate alone misses the point. A 9.5% growth rate is solid but not flashy. The opening count, around 81,000 a year, is enormous, among the highest of any skilled trade, which means real, abundant opportunity to get in.
And the forces behind that demand are accelerating, not fading. The electrification of nearly everything is driving sustained need: grid modernization and expansion, the explosion of data centers built for AI computing, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and the steady move toward electric heating, appliances, and renewable power. Every one of those trends requires electricians, and none of them is slowing down. On top of new demand, a large share of the current workforce is approaching retirement, which keeps the openings coming regardless of growth rate.
This combination, strong and durable demand drivers, the highest opening count on this list, good pay, and a clear path to six figures through specialization and business ownership, is why electrician is the strongest all-around bet among growing trades, even though it is not the fastest-growing by percentage. See our full Electrician Career Hub.
HVAC Technician — climate demand that never stops
Growth: +8.1% (2024-34) • Annual openings: about 40,100 • Median pay: about $61,010
HVAC sits just behind electrician on growth, at 8.1%, with around 40,100 openings a year. The demand drivers are steady and structural rather than trendy: a growing population needing climate control, a warming climate increasing reliance on air conditioning, constant new construction, and an enormous installed base of existing systems that all eventually need replacement and repair.
That last point is the quiet strength of HVAC. Even in a slow economy, heating and cooling systems break and must be fixed, which makes the work resistant to downturns. Add the steady replacement cycle of aging equipment and you get reliable, year-round demand. HVAC is also one of the easier trades to turn into a business, which lifts the earning ceiling well past the median. See our full HVAC Career Hub.
Plumber — modest growth, deep and durable demand
Growth: +4.5% (2024-34) • Annual openings: about 44,000 • Median pay: about $62,970
Plumbing has the most modest growth rate of the three core trades, at 4.5%, roughly in line with the economy as a whole. But look at the opening count: around 44,000 a year, more than HVAC, despite the slower growth. That is the openings-vs-rate lesson in a single line. Plumbing is a large, established trade, and a wave of retirements plus steady replacement demand keeps a high volume of jobs opening every year regardless of the headline growth number.
The demand drivers are unglamorous and permanent: aging water and sewer infrastructure that needs constant repair and replacement, new construction, and the simple fact that plumbing fails and must be fixed in any economy. Plumbing is one of the most recession-resistant trades there is, with a strong owner-operator path that pushes top earnings well above the median. See our full Plumber Career Hub.
Industrial Machinery Mechanic — the underrated sweet spot
Growth: +16.1% (2024-34) • Annual openings: about 45,700 • Median pay: about $63,510
This is the trade most people overlook, and it may be the best growth-plus-volume combination on the entire list. BLS projects 16.1% growth, far faster than average, paired with around 45,700 openings a year. Strong on both axes, which is rare.
The driver is the modernization and reshoring of American manufacturing. As factories automate and as more production returns to the US, someone has to install, maintain, and repair the increasingly complex machinery, and the workers who can troubleshoot both mechanical and automated electronic systems are in short supply. It is technical, well-paid, in-demand work that very few 18-year-olds have ever heard of, which is exactly the kind of hidden opportunity worth knowing about.
A note for clarity: BLS reports industrial machinery mechanics separately from millwrights, a related trade that installs and aligns heavy machinery. Millwrights are well-paid but projected to stay essentially flat over the decade, so the strong growth here belongs specifically to industrial machinery mechanics.
Solar Photovoltaic Installer — explosive growth, small field
Growth: +42.1% (2024-34) • Annual openings: small (see note) • Median pay: about $51,860
Solar installer is the second-fastest-growing occupation in the entire economy, not just the trades, at over 42%. The driver is straightforward: the continued expansion of solar energy means a rising need for people to install and maintain panels.
But here is the honest caveat. Even at that explosive rate, solar installation is a small field, projected to add only about 12,000 jobs over the entire decade, roughly 4,100 openings a year. The growth rate is real and impressive, but the absolute number of jobs is modest, and the median pay is the lowest of the trades on this list. It is a genuine opportunity, especially if you are passionate about renewable energy and live where solar is booming, but the percentage alone oversells it. We do not yet cover solar in depth, but it is worth watching.
Wind Turbine Technician — the fastest grower of all
Growth: +49.9% (2024-34) • Annual openings: small (see note) • Median pay: about $62,580
Wind turbine technician is the single fastest-growing occupation in the United States, at nearly 50%. Technicians install, maintain, and repair the turbines behind wind energy, and as more wind capacity comes online, more techs are needed to keep it running.
The same honest caveat applies, even more so. This is a very small field, projected to add only about 6,800 jobs over the whole decade, roughly 2,300 openings a year. A 50% growth rate on a small base is still a small number of jobs. The pay is solid at around $62,580, and the work suits people who do not mind heights and travel to wind farms, but nobody should choose this trade on the strength of the growth rate without understanding how few positions that rate actually represents. We do not cover wind in depth yet, but like solar, it is worth keeping an eye on.
Highest paying vs fastest growing trades
Pay and growth do not always point to the same trade, and seeing them side by side is the fastest way to understand the real tradeoffs.
| Trade | Growth (2024-34) | Median pay |
|---|---|---|
| Wind Turbine Technician | +49.9% | $62,580 |
| Solar Photovoltaic Installer | +42.1% | $51,860 |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanic | +16.1% | $63,510 |
| Electrician | +9.5% | $62,350 |
| HVAC Technician | +8.1% | $61,010 |
| Plumber / Pipefitter / Steamfitter | +4.5% | $62,970 |
| Welder | +2.2% | $51,000 |
The takeaway is that the trades topping the growth list and the trades topping the pay list are mostly different. Wind and solar grow fastest but pay in the middle and offer few openings. Elevator installers and linemen (from our highest-paying ranking) pay the most but grow slowly. The trades that score respectably on both, electrician, HVAC, and industrial machinery mechanic, rarely top either list alone, which is exactly why they get overlooked and exactly why they may be the smartest choices.
Which trade has the best combination of pay and growth?
Here is the question that actually matters. Almost nobody truly wants the fastest-growing trade or the highest-paying trade in isolation. What they want is the best opportunity: a trade that pays well, has room to grow, and offers enough real openings that they can actually get in and stay employed.
When you plot pay against demand, the trades sort into four groups, and one corner is clearly where you want to be.
The trade you want sits in the upper corner: strong pay and strong demand. And when you map the real BLS numbers, the same names land there again and again.
Electrician is the standout. Good pay, solid 9.5% growth, and the highest opening count of any trade on this list, all driven by electrification trends that are accelerating. It is rarely the single highest-paying or single fastest-growing trade, but on the combination that actually matters, it is hard to beat.
HVAC lands in the same favorable zone: steady growth, huge opening volume, recession-resistant demand, and an easy path to business ownership that lifts the ceiling.
Industrial machinery mechanic work deserves a mention here too, scoring strong on both pay and growth (16.1%) while staying almost invisible to people choosing a trade.
Plumber rounds it out: the growth rate is modest, but the opening volume, durability, pay, and ownership path make it a strong opportunity by every measure except headline growth.
This is the core point of this entire guide. The best trade is rarely the one at the top of any single list. It is the one that balances pay, growth, openings, and accessibility, and for most people, that points squarely at the trades we cover in depth.
Are skilled trades future-proof?
No job is completely future-proof, and any guide that tells you otherwise is selling something. But the hands-on skilled trades are among the hardest work to automate or outsource, and that is a real and durable advantage.
Automation and AI are reshaping a lot of desk-based work, but installing wiring in an unfinished building, repairing a furnace in a cramped attic, or troubleshooting a broken machine on a factory floor are physical, variable, on-site tasks that robots handle poorly and cannot do unsupervised. You cannot outsource a plumbing repair to another country, and you cannot download an electrician. The work has to be done by a skilled person, on location, adapting to conditions no two of which are identical.
That said, the honest version is that the trades are not frozen in time. The tools are getting smarter, and the highest earners increasingly are the ones who can work with modern, computerized, automated systems rather than just mechanical ones. The trade itself is durable; staying current within it still matters. But compared with the broad anxiety about automation erasing entire job categories, the skilled trades are about as safe a bet as the modern economy offers.
How to enter a growing trade
If a growing trade sounds right, the path in is clear and the same across most of them:
- Choose a trade that fits both your interests and the opportunity data, pay, growth, and openings together.
- Learn the requirements for that trade in your state, including any licensing or certification.
- Apply for an apprenticeship or training program. For most trades this is the main door in, and it pays you while you learn.
- Build experience as you work through the apprenticeship toward journeyman status.
- Advance through specialization, supervision, licensure, or business ownership, which is where earnings climb well past the median.
The single most important step is the apprenticeship, because it is how you enter most trades without debt and with a paycheck from day one. Our apprenticeship guide walks through exactly how they work and how to apply.
Frequently asked questions
What is the fastest-growing trade?
Wind turbine service technician, projected to grow about 50% from 2024 to 2034, the fastest of any occupation in the country. Solar photovoltaic installer is second at about 42%. Both are small fields, though, so the high rate represents a relatively small number of actual jobs.
Which trade has the most job openings?
Among skilled trades, electricians lead with roughly 81,000 projected openings per year, followed by industrial machinery mechanics at around 45,700 and welding at about 45,600. High opening counts come from a mix of growth and the need to replace retiring workers.
What trade has the best future?
For most people, electrician offers the best combination of demand, openings, pay, and durable growth drivers like electrification, data centers, and EV infrastructure. HVAC and industrial machinery mechanic work are close behind. The "best future" is about strong demand plus real openings, not just the highest growth percentage.
Are electricians in demand?
Very much so. Employment is projected to grow 9.5% through 2034, with around 81,000 openings a year, driven by grid upgrades, data centers, EV charging, and electrification, plus a wave of retirements. It is one of the most in-demand skilled trades in the country.
Is HVAC a growing field?
Yes. HVAC is projected to grow 8.1% through 2034, faster than the average occupation, with about 40,100 openings a year, driven by climate-control demand, new construction, and the constant need to replace aging systems.
Are plumbers still needed?
Yes. Plumbing is projected to grow about 4.5%, but it still opens roughly 44,000 jobs a year because it is a large trade with a retiring workforce and permanent demand. Pipes and water systems fail regardless of the economy, which makes plumbing one of the most recession-resistant trades.
Will AI replace skilled trades?
It is unlikely to replace the hands-on trades. Physical, on-site, variable work like wiring a building or repairing equipment is very difficult to automate or outsource. AI and smarter tools are changing how the work is done, and the best earners keep up with newer systems, but the core work still requires a skilled person on location.
What trade should I learn in 2026?
There is no single right answer, but for most people the trades that balance pay, growth, and real openings, electrician, HVAC, and industrial machinery mechanic, are the strongest bets. The best choice also depends on your interests, your body, and what demand looks like where you live.
Explore your options
A few good places to go from here, whether you want a personalized match, a side-by-side comparison, or the full picture on a specific trade.
Find the Right Trade for You
Take the 2-minute Trade Finder Quiz and get personalized trade recommendations based on your interests and goals.
Compare Trades
Put two trades head to head on salary, training time, licensing paths, and career progression.
Explore Trade Careers
Browse all the trades and dig into any one, with full salary data, career roadmaps, licensing requirements, and specializations
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2024-34 and Occupational Outlook Handbook; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2024 and May 2025. Growth rates are projected percent change in employment, 2024-34. Opening counts are average annual openings over the decade, which include both growth and replacement needs. Wage figures are approximate national medians and vary by employer, location, and experience.